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Arsenal Of The Axis
North Korea already supplies
missiles to rogue states. Now it poses a new threat: nuclear proliferation
BY JOHN LARKIN AND DONALD MACINTYRE / SEOUL
Sunan Airport
on the outskirts of North Korea's capital city, Pyongyang, is one of the world's
bleaker transportation hubs, a collection of featureless concrete buildings
distinguished only by a giant portrait of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il gazing
beatifically over shabby tarmac. Though unpicturesque, Sunan has been providing
U.S. spy satellites with plenty of photo opportunities of late. On at least six
occasions between April and early July, satellites spotted Iranian IL-76 cargo
planes being loaded with wooden crates at Sunan. The frequency of the flights
was unusual?normally no more than two flights a year take off from Sunan bound
for Iran, according to U.S. government sources. But of greater concern was the
size and shape of the crates, which indicated their contents. "It was cruise
missiles," says an official in the Bush Administration. So sure was Washington
of the jets' cargo that a complaint was lodged with China, which had allowed the
flights to traverse its airspace to reach Iran.
That North Korea is
selling arms abroad is no revelation. At least half a dozen countries?including
Pakistan, Libya and Syria?are known to have purchased missiles from the rogue
regime. But analysts and hard-liners in the U.S. are increasingly concerned that
a desperate North Korea is spreading more than conventional arms?it is bartering
its atomic weapons technology to Iran, creating an unholy, and far more
dangerous, alliance between the two other members of President George W. Bush's
"axis of evil." "If I send a shipment of missile components on a plane, it
doesn't mean I can't send with it a nuclear scientist with a hard drive," says
Joseph Bermudez, a widely respected senior analyst at Jane's Information Group.
Asserts Yossef Bodansky, director of the U.S. Congressional Task Force on
Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare: "We know there is cooperation between
North Korea and Iran in the nuclear field. The Iranians have a very
comprehensive military nuclear program, and North Korea has been crucial in
that." He cites Middle East intelligence sources that indicate the collaboration
began in the mid-1990s.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful
power generation only. To ensure that is the case, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) along with the U.S. and the European Union are pressing
Iran's leaders to sign an additional protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty that would allow tougher IAEA inspections. There's no solid evidence in
the public domain to indicate that Iran is chasing the Bomb?and in the aftermath
of the debacle over Iraq's still-undiscovered weapons of mass destruction, it's
impossible to conclude that the U.S. intelligence community has an abundance of
secret knowledge of the Iran-North Korea partnership or that U.S. government
officials are correctly interpreting it.
Evidence is mounting, however,
and not all of it is emanating from Bush Administration hard-liners. The
National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a Paris-based Iranian dissident
group, claims that North Korean scientists have been helping Iran build a
nuclear facility that could be used to produce bombmaking material. Last
December, NCRI blew the whistle on Iran's uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz,
heightening international concern about the nature of Tehran's nuclear
ambitions. Just how much nuclear help Iran is getting from North Korea isn't
clear, says NCRI spokesman Alireza Jafarzadeh. "We do know they have benefited,"
he says.
The U.S. is seeking additional proof?and is stepping up the
pressure. Last week the U.S. State Department issued sanctions against a North
Korean company, Changgwang Sinyong, along with five Chinese companies for
selling arms technology to Iran last year. Meanwhile, Time has learned that U.S.
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton
traveled to the Middle East last month in part to persuade several Arab nations
to share intelligence with the U.S. on any suspicious traffic between Iran and
North Korea. A U.S. official familiar with the trip says Middle Eastern
diplomats are "concerned about North Korea exporting nuclear technology,
know-how or fissile material to the region."
Analysts cite mutual
interests that Iran and North Korea share as reason to suspect the two countries
are collaborating. Intelligence sources say North Korea is working its way up
the ladder of nuclear sophistication by acquiring the ability to make not just
crude, clumsy A-bombs but also warheads small enough to fit atop its missile
arsenal?and Pyongyang has already warned it would be willing to sell its
expertise and nuclear material unless the U.S. delivers aid and security
guarantees.
Arms sales are one of North Korea's few sources of hard
currency to prop up its dysfunctional economy. Since the U.S. cut off oil
shipments last year in an effort to pressure Kim to abandon his nukes, the North
is also desperately short of fuel to keep electrical generators running and its
ramshackle manufacturing economy ticking over. Analysts note that Iran has
plenty of oil to trade for arms?along with a strong desire to acquire nuclear
weapons, according to Bush administration hawks.
Uncovering and halting
the proliferation of North Korean military hardware?perhaps even through a naval
and aerial blockade?has become a key component of U.S. efforts to contain the
nuclear threat. On his recent swing through the Middle East, Bolton made it
clear to his hosts that the U.S. expected support for a plan to interdict North
Korean arms shipments in the air and on the high seas. The controversial plan
was first aired during a mid-June meeting in Madrid between representatives of
11 countries: the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain. North Korea's arms sales "finance their
nuclear weapons program," says Bolton. "This is not money that goes to the
starving people of North Korea."
But cordoning off the North presents
legal and practical difficulties. One such obstacle: stopping ships on the high
seas is questionable under international maritime law. The interception and
boarding of a North Korean freighter in the Arabian Sea last December by Spanish
patrol boats was not legally kosher, says a Western diplomat, despite the fact
that the ship was found to be carrying North Korean-made Scud missiles to Yemen.
The freighter was allowed to continue to its destination. Such interdictions
will be "legally extremely complex, or just flat-out impossible," says the
diplomat. However, a senior Bush Administration official says a proposed
resolution before the U.N. Security Council might provide the cover needed to
intercept shipments of missiles, which currently are legal to sell under
international law. Even with wide-ranging support, stopping North Korea's arms
traffic is dangerous. Pyongyang has repeatedly threatened to attack South Korea
if economic sanctions are imposed. In a typically bellicose statement sent to
the U.N. Security Council on June 27, North Korea warned that U.S.-backed
sanctions or blockades would "return the Korean peninsula to a state of war."
Nevertheless, ports around the globe are under U.S. pressure to tighten
lax export controls that allow North Korea to source much of the high-tech
machinery and parts it needs to build conventional arms?as well as weapons of
mass destruction. Following revelations this year that some Japanese-based
companies had exported items to the North that could have been used to build
atom bombs, Japan has attempted to curtail some of its trade with the regime. On
May 8, for example, Tokyo police raided a trading company called Meishin, which
is run by members of Japan's North Korean community. Police accused Meishin of
exporting transformers whose workaday function of regulating electrical current
could have had useful applications in Pyongyang's uranium-enrichment program.
Meanwhile, the chief of Seishin, another Japanese company, was arrested
along with four employees in June over the export of grinding machines called
jet mills to Iran in 1999-2000. The company is also suspected of selling a jet
mill to Pyongyang in the mid-1990s, according to the Japanese media, and police
are investigating to determine whether any more recent sales were made to the
North. Jet mills crush solid objects with highly pressurized air, and are most
commonly used to pulverize plastics and pharmaceuticals. They can, however, also
boost missile thrust by turning solid rocket fuel into fine particles, and are a
restricted export under Japanese law.
Those who have witnessed North
Korean arms-manufacturing operations are not surprised that Japan is a source of
components. Kim Do Sung, who defected from the North in 1997 and now goes by a
pseudonym to protect relatives back home, says he worked for nine years at Plant
38, a huge armaments factory in the city of Huichon in the northern province of
Jaggang. Kim says the vast majority of the computer chips and electronic
components used in missile guidance systems there were Japanese. He recalls
unloading a shipment of equipment from Japan that was like a Christmas stocking
for missile scientists, packed with oscilloscopes for analyzing trajectory,
special welding machines to make the seamless joints needed in a missile body,
computer chips and picture tubes used in monitors to track missile routes.
"Without foreign parts we couldn't have made the missiles," says Kim. "That's
the main reason North Korea needs dollars."
Japan isn't the only
shopping mall for North Korea's military machine. Pyongyang gets precursor
chemicals for its chemical and biological weapons programs from Europe, China
and Russia, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. The freighter that
took the North Korean Scuds to Yemen returned to the North via Germany, loading
up with a shipment of sodium cyanide?a chemical used in metal plating and gold
extraction that can also be used to make nerve gas. That shipment was blocked by
German and French authorities. Germany also recently blocked a North Korea-bound
consignment of aluminum tubes?key components for the centrifuges used to enrich
uranium to bomb-grade quality. Chinese companies have sold specialty steel to
North Korea for use in its missile program, as well as gyroscopes and
accelerometers (used to measure vibration and g-force) that are potential
missile parts. And Russian companies are suspected of selling high-strength
maraging steel?used in missiles and centrifuge systems?to Pyongyang.
The
trade is hard to stop because it's impossible to tell whether so-called
"dual-use" material and equipment are destined for peaceful purposes. North
Korea is skilled at using front companies with ever-changing names to disguise
the real end user. As a Western diplomat notes, a machine for freeze-drying
coffee can also be used to make anthrax spores. Says Akio Igarashi of the
Tokyo-based watchdog Center for Information on Security Trade Control: "With
North Korea you don't know if a lunch box you export will end up as a container
for nuclear material."
Tokyo is trying nonetheless to enhance screening
of exports to the North. Ferry runs between the two countries by the
Mangyongbong-92, a North Korean ship suspected of transporting spies and drugs
into Japan and weapons parts out, were suspended by Pyongyang in June after
Tokyo deployed an army of inspectors to Niigata dockyards to scour the vessel.
Japan has also blacklisted all trade with Pyongyang's Central Zoo, which is
suspected of being a military front that uses its amusement-park rides as an
excuse to procure electrical parts for missiles and other arms.
Ultimately, choking off North Korea's trade will depend upon
participation of its two traditional allies and major trading partners?China and
Russia. Senior U.S. officials, according to sources, are constantly wheedling
China to deny overflight rights to suspicious planes exiting North Korea,
without success. Last week, China and Russia blocked a proposed condemnation of
North Korea's nuclear arms program by the U.N. Security Council.
Underlying any action against the North is the risk that the rogue
nation will do something crazy in response. Trying to stop ships and planes
carrying hardware that represents one of the country's few sources of income
could have "dangerous consequences," says Bermudez, the Jane's analyst. "What
happens if the North Koreans open fire?"
Washington seems to calculate
that the risk cannot be avoided without confronting far greater dangers later.
Iran watcher Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute, citing sources
in Iran, says a delegation of mullahs traveled to Pyongyang a few months ago to
discuss swapping nuclear technology for cash. It isn't known if the deal was
concluded. But after the trip, top leaders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards were
told that Iran would have its own nuclear weapons "soon," says Ledeen. Saddam
Hussein's Iraq had no nukes. That regime is gone, but how much more frightening
will Bush's "axis of evil" be a year from now?
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: http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501030714-463132,00.html